Bitcoin’s slow climb toward $80,000 continues as traders digest US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market sitting at 3% YES. The possibility of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April remains a concern, though that market does not provide current odds.
The June 30 all-time high market is unchanged from 24 hours ago but down from 4% a week ago. The September 30 market shows 11% YES, down from 12% a week ago. The 7-point spread between June and September suggests traders expect some catalyst in that window. The December 31 market is at 17.5% YES, with more optimism priced in further out.
The geopolitical risk from the US-Iran standoff weighs on all three markets. If the ceasefire collapses, odds could shift sharply. At 3% YES, the June 30 market prices in deep skepticism about Bitcoin reaching new peaks while Strait of Hormuz tensions remain unresolved.
Trading activity in the Bitcoin all-time high market runs at a modest $917 in actual USDC traded daily. It takes $959 to move the June 30 market 5 percentage points, which means liquidity is thin. The September market is thicker, requiring $5,933 for a comparable move.
At current prices, a YES share on the June 30 market costs 3¢ and pays $1 if Bitcoin breaks its all-time high by then, a 33.3x return. That outcome likely requires de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or a major positive shift in macroeconomic conditions. Watch diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan and Moscow, and any changes in US naval orders, as these could move sentiment and Bitcoin’s price quickly.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
