Bitcoin’s sudden drop to $77.5K erased $27B from its market cap, with $68M in longs liquidated within the hour. The probability of Bitcoin hitting $60,000 in April now sits at 30% YES, up from lower levels before the crash.
The sell-off is linked to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. Warsh’s hawkish reputation triggered a risk-off move, and thin liquidity conditions made the crash worse. Markets predicting Bitcoin’s potential dip to $60,000 in April are seeing increased activity, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of further declines.
The Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 market also reflects a shift in sentiment. Odds of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2026 are at 4.9% YES, unchanged for a week, but now set against a more bearish macroeconomic backdrop. Daily volume is $505 in USDC, suggesting traders are waiting for more clarity on macroeconomic policy direction before committing.
Bitcoin at 30¢ YES on the April $60,000 contract pays $1 if it resolves, a 3.3x return. That price implies the market sees roughly a one-in-three chance of another 22% drawdown within the month, a bet that monetary policy tightening under a new Fed chair could keep pressure on risk assets.
Watch Jerome Powell’s comments on liquidity and any major institutional moves in response to the Fed chair nomination. These will shape whether the April $60,000 contract moves higher or fades.
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