Stalled US-Iran negotiations and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have done little to move WTI crude oil prediction markets, with odds of WTI hitting $160 in April sitting at 1% YES, unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Across five sub-markets in the WTI Crude Oil markets for April, the $160 target holds at 1% YES. Actual daily trading volume is $514 in USDC, with $1,955 needed to move the price 5 points, making the market susceptible to large single trades. June crude oil predictions remain inactive.
Face value volume across these markets is $49,622 per day, but only $514 is actually at stake. The $1,955 threshold to shift prices confirms thin liquidity. The largest single-candle move hasn’t exceeded 24 hours, pointing to no new substantial catalysts entering the market.
Odds have stayed flat this week despite the geopolitical noise. Low activity points to traders waiting for concrete developments: confirmed military actions or diplomatic resolutions. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return.
The main catalysts to watch: Trump’s next move on Iran, any shift in military or diplomatic posture, OPEC+ updates, and new sanctions or military actions in the Gulf.
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