The World Bank predicts Brent crude could average $95 to $115 if disruptions persist, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April 2026 sits at 0% YES.
Market reaction
The contract has stayed flat at 0% YES, though the World Bank’s forecast points to risks tied to the US-Iran conflict that could pressure Bitcoin. Daily face value on this market is $77,980, but actual USDC traded is just $953. Order book depth is thin: only $2,581 is needed to move the price 5 points, meaning any meaningful order could shift the odds.
Why it matters
Sustained high oil prices would signal continued geopolitical instability. The low odds on a Bitcoin dip to $60,000 suggest traders aren’t pricing in a collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, but that scenario, if it materialized, would spike oil prices and could push Bitcoin toward lower support levels.
What to watch
At 0.4¢, a YES share pays out heavily if Bitcoin touches $60,000, but that outcome requires a serious catalyst. Traders betting on this dip would need to expect a real escalation in geopolitical tensions with direct economic consequences.
Key triggers: statements or actions from Mojtaba Khamenei, or any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Either could change the calculus on Bitcoin’s downside risk.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit In April 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
