The White House accused Beijing of large-scale AI model theft, pushing odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 down to 76% YES from 86% a week ago.
The April 30 market is effectively dead at 0.5% YES with just 7 days left. May 31 is where the action is, with a 9-point drop over the past week. The June 30 market sits at 82% YES, pricing in more time for a resolution.
The term structure shows a 76-point jump from April to May, which means traders expect something to break in early May. Volume on the April market is $1,142/day in USDC, confirming low confidence. The May market trades $22,892/day in USDC, showing real conviction, though the AI theft accusations have clearly spooked some participants.
The White House’s aggressive posture, with OSTP Director Michael Kratsios publicly backing the accusations, raises the cost of a near-term diplomatic visit. A YES share for April 30 is effectively worthless. Buying YES for May 31 at 76¢ offers a potential 1.32x return, but that bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough can happen while the administration is publicly accusing China of AI theft.
Watch for statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry or new U.S. travel advisories. A firm White House announcement of travel plans could move odds fast in either direction.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 75% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
