General Caine confirmed the US will continue enforcing the Hormuz blockade. The likelihood of Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31 has dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.
Hegseth’s comments about Europe and Asia taking more responsibility didn’t move odds for UK warships in Hormuz, stuck at 2% YES. That market trades only $286 in USDC daily. Caine’s statement locked in the US position and drove the 17.5-point drop on Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market, now at 59.5% YES.
Trading volume on the Hormuz blockade market hit $32,536 in USDC. The order book requires $7,029 to move the price five points. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a three-point drop, consistent with growing trader skepticism about the blockade lifting soon.
The contradiction between Hegseth (suggesting the US should step back) and Caine (confirming continued enforcement) leaves the market pricing in real uncertainty. At 60¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade’s end by May 31, for a 1.67x return. That bet requires expecting a diplomatic breakthrough before the deadline.
Watch for European military movements or statements from Trump about negotiations, either of which could shift these odds fast.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
