US officials report that Iran still holds substantial military capabilities despite ongoing US and Israeli strikes. The market for the Iranian regime falling by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
The assessment kills any remaining near-term regime collapse thesis. The April 30 market is barely alive at 0.5% YES, a steep decline from 2% a week ago. The May 31 market is also down to 3.4% YES. Traders are repricing regime change expectations given Iran’s military durability under sustained strikes.
The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market has slipped to 6.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday. Traders see little reason for the exiled crown prince to return while the regime remains stable.
The US officials’ assessment means Iran’s strategic deterrence is intact, which reinforces regime stability and lowers the odds of a sudden political shift. At 0.5% YES, buying shares for an April 30 regime fall bets on a 200x return, but the military’s continued operational capacity makes that a long shot.
Watch for communications from Iranian leadership and any shifts in US policy. The durability of the current ceasefire and any announcements from the Assembly of Experts or the IRGC are the key signals.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
