Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled, according to ship tracking data. The market for whether fewer than 10 ships will transit the strait between April 13-19 is at 0.4% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
The US naval blockade, part of the US-Iran conflict, has effectively halted nearly all shipping traffic through the strait. The market predicting 80 ships will transit on any day by April 30 has fallen to 30.5% YES, down from 51% a day ago. Vessel movement remains severely constrained despite recent ceasefire agreements.
The fewer-than-10-ships market by April 19 remains thin, with only $14 actual USDC traded daily. It takes just $12 to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a modest 2-point spike at 4:25 AM, indicating low trading activity. The April 30 market, by contrast, trades $16,360 in actual USDC daily, with a 10-point drop at 5:48 PM reflecting significant trader repositioning.
For traders, the blockade looks entrenched. The probability of reaching 80 transits by the end of April is low unless a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.4x return. That outcome requires rapid de-escalation or a strategic shift.
Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or diplomatic moves by Russia and China that could signal a change in the blockade’s status. Either would likely move market expectations and trader positions quickly.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
