The International Energy Agency says the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has caused the most severe energy crisis in history. On Polymarket, crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June is at 71% YES.
Market reaction
The IEA’s statement follows Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil flows. The crude oil price predictions by the end of June market shows strong conviction in prices reaching $90, with traders pricing in continued supply disruptions.
The crude oil predictions for June market is equally bullish, with odds also favoring a price surge. Existing disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a massive strategic reserve release compound the pressure. With 71 days left until the June 30 resolution, traders are positioning for upward oil price movements.
Why it matters
Despite the energy crisis, odds for a US declaration of war on Iran remain low. December 31 odds sit at 6.5% YES, showing little expectation of a formal war declaration even as the conflict continues.
This creates a contrarian opportunity. A YES share at 6.5% pays $1 if a war declaration occurs by year’s end, a potential 15.4x return. For this bet to pay off, US-Iran tensions would need to escalate well beyond the current status quo.
What to watch
Statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and EIA updates. The next OPEC+ meeting could shift market pricing if production adjustments are announced.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
