Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar’s prediction of imminent US decapitation strikes on Iran complicates ceasefire prospects, with Trump’s end of military operations against Iran by March 31 sitting at 0% YES.
The market for Trump announcing the end of military operations has seen no recent trading. Aguilar’s comments point toward military escalation, reinforcing the bearish outlook for Trump’s end-of-operations market. With 311 days until the March 31 resolution, traders are pricing in prolonged conflict.
The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. With only six days left until resolution, the odds reflect near-certainty of Iranian retaliation, whether through direct strikes or other regional actions.
Trading volume tells the story. The end-of-operations market has zero activity. The diplomatic meeting locations market sees $27,334 in daily USDC volume, though the focus remains on military, not diplomatic moves. Depth of $141 to move 5 points means small trades can still shift perceptions quickly.
Why it matters: Aguilar’s forecast of decapitation strikes means continued volatility in markets tied to US-Iran conflict resolutions. Buying YES at 0¢ on Trump’s end of operations offers a theoretical return, but the geopolitical climate makes that a risky long bet.
What to watch: Official Pentagon statements or Trump administration briefings that could confirm or deny Aguilar’s forecast. Any movement toward talks or de-escalation by Trump or Hegseth could shift these odds significantly.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
