US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad with Pakistan as mediator have moved forward, pushing a permanent peace deal by April 22 to 22% YES, up from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The market for a peace deal by April 30 also rose, now at 38% YES. The term structure shows the biggest jump between April 30 and May 31, which points to trader expectations of a mid-May catalyst. Meanwhile, the chances of the US declaring war on Iran by December 31 dropped to 7.5% YES, consistent with reduced escalation risk as diplomatic talks continue.
Why it matters
USDC volume for the peace deal markets hit $686,627 in the past 24 hours with substantial liquidity. The cost to shift prices by 5 percentage points is highest for the April 22 market at $38,743, which signals institutional participation. That said, the largest single move was an 8-point drop, so volatility is present.
What to watch
The Islamabad talks are meaningful but not definitive. Traders betting on a peace deal by April 22 at 22¢ would collect a 4.5x return if it resolves YES, but that requires real progress within six days. Key signals: statements from Pakistan as intermediary, any announcements from US or Iranian leaders, and Trump’s next public comments or an official State Department statement.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
