The New York Post reports that a second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks might begin as soon as Friday. The Polymarket ceasefire-by-April-30 contract sits at 16.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
The reported talks follow a tense ceasefire agreed to on April 8 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The April 30 market has swung sharply, with the biggest move being a 5-point spike at 6:59 PM yesterday. With only 9 days until the resolution date, traders are pricing in both the diplomatic difficulty and the tight timeline.
Volume on the ceasefire market is $68,607 in USDC traded daily. But the book is thin: it takes just $4,074 to move the price by 5 percentage points. A few large trades can push odds around meaningfully. The 5-point spike fits that pattern, though it also suggests some traders are betting on diplomatic progress.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed under blockades, and Iran has rejected past U.S. proposals. The ceasefire market functions as a proxy for diplomatic progress. Any confirmed mediation by Oman or Qatar could shift odds quickly.
Watch for announcements from Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth. A named venue or confirmed date for talks would be the clearest signal of forward movement. Until then, expect continued volatility around the current price.
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