Treasury yields remain steady amid waning optimism for a US-Iran ceasefire extension. The likelihood of extending the ceasefire by April 21 is at 0% YES, and the market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April is priced at 1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Fading ceasefire optimism and a looming US naval blockade raise geopolitical tensions, which could push Bitcoin lower. A dip to $60,000 in April becomes more plausible if the situation deteriorates further. The market currently prices this at 1% YES with no movement in the last day.
The odds sit at 1% YES. Daily trading volume is $109,121 in face value but only $1,192 in actual USDC traded. The order book is thin: just $2,754 would move the price 5 percentage points. That illiquidity means any sudden shift in sentiment could reprice the contract quickly.
For traders, this is a waiting game. Buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin dips to $60,000, a 100x return. That bet requires tensions to escalate further without a diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch US Central Command for announcements on military actions or changes to the naval blockade. Any tweets or statements from Trump or Iranian officials suggesting a shift in the current stalemate could move these markets.
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