Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US consumers could see $3.00 per gallon gas prices between June 20 and September 20, 2026, contingent on successful negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket crude oil contract for June 2026 prices the probability of hitting $90 at 15%, down on potential de-escalation in the region.
Market reaction
The June 2026 crude oil market is pricing a lower probability of reaching $90, with Bessent’s comments pointing toward a possible normalization in the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are weighing the potential for resumed oil transit and production, which could ease supply fears and push prices down. The market is 73 days from resolution, and traders are now treating a diplomatic breakthrough as a tangible possibility.
Why it matters
Volume for the crude oil market was zero over the last 24 hours. The news hasn’t triggered trading activity yet, which means any large orders could cause sharp movements. The market’s thin depth makes it vulnerable to swings from bigger trades, particularly if new information surfaces about US-Iran negotiations.
What to watch
Bessent’s optimism is a real development, but the deal isn’t done. US-Iranian negotiations are ongoing, and the path to $3 gas depends on their outcome. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude hits $90 by June, a 6.67x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe the talks fail and supply constraints persist.
Watch for US-Iran negotiation updates and any statements from OPEC or the Iranian government. The next major signal will be a concrete announcement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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