U.S. forces have turned around 27 vessels near Iranian ports since the blockade began, but the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-19 sits at just 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The 27 turnarounds point toward reduced traffic through the strait, yet the fewer than 10 ships market prices resolution at 0.4%. Daily volume is roughly $14 in USDC. At that level of liquidity, a $12 order can move the odds by 5 points.
Why it matters
The blockade is a direct kinetic escalation. Turning back 27 vessels is not routine enforcement; it raises the probability that weekly transit counts drop sharply. A YES share at 0.4¢ pays 250x if the market resolves positively. The current price reflects the market’s view that sub-10 transits remain unlikely even under blockade conditions, but the thin liquidity means the price may not fully incorporate the latest enforcement data.
What to watch
CENTCOM communications are the primary signal. Any change in blockade enforcement rules, expansion of the interdiction zone, or a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran would directly affect transit volumes and repricing in this market.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 1.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
