The U.S.-Europe alliance is under strain due to the Iran conflict, with ceasefire odds by April 7 plummeting to 1% YES from 12% last week.
Europe’s refusal to join U.S. military efforts has widened the rift, impacting the April 7 ceasefire market, now at a near-zero 1%. The April 15 market is also low at 6% YES, indicating skepticism about quick diplomatic progress.
Longer-term markets show some optimism: April 30 is at 18%, and May 31 at 36%. The biggest increase is between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a significant event then. June 30 is the most hopeful, at 52% YES.
Trading volume is at $3.8M daily, with $431K in USDC traded. Moving the odds 5 points requires $40K for April 15 but only $12K for April 7, showing thinner near-term markets. This highlights where traders see potential volatility.
The U.S.-Europe discord complicates ceasefire prospects. With Trump setting an April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, chances for a quick diplomatic solution are slim. A YES share at 1% pays $1 if a ceasefire is declared by April 7, offering a 99x return, but this hinges on an unlikely rapid diplomatic shift.
Watch for moves from Oman or Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from Trump or Rubio, which could impact markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
