The U.S. and Israel are ready to strike Iranian targets if negotiations fail. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Traders are pessimistic about a ceasefire soon, with the April 7 market nearly flat at 1.1% YES. The April 30 market has dropped significantly to 17.5% YES from 40% a week ago. The 19-point jump from April 30 to May 31 suggests traders expect a potential catalyst after April.
Heavy trading saw $430,773 in USDC change hands in the past 24 hours across these markets. April 15 odds at 6.5% YES show skepticism, despite a $40,022 depth needed to shift the price 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point spike for April 30 at 5:08 PM, indicating speculative interest.
Mario Nawfal’s report hints at escalation, but its tier-3 source status makes traders cautious. Without official confirmation, the impact is limited, though military action remains a possibility. A YES share at 1.1¢ for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a 90x return, but betting on it requires belief in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or shifts involving Oman or Qatar. Aggressive language from Trump or Netanyahu could further lower ceasefire odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
