The UN Security Council has failed to agree on any action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market for traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 18.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The May 15 market has slipped over the past 24 hours as traders price in the UN’s inability to broker a deal. The strait remains effectively closed.
The market predicting the US blockade of Hormuz will be lifted by May 31 has moved sharply. Odds are at 58.5% YES, down from 72% a day ago, as traders grow skeptical of any near-term diplomatic deal.
Why it matters
The May 15 market has $36,459 in USDC traded; the May 31 market has $95,253. Order book depth shows it would cost $4,658 to move the May 15 odds by 5 percentage points, meaning this is a thin market where small trades can swing prices significantly.
The continued deadlock raises the risk of escalation. Diplomatic efforts have not addressed the root causes of the crisis, and both markets are trending downward.
What to watch
At 18.5¢, a YES share in the May 15 market pays $1 if traffic resumes by then, a potential 5.4x return. But traders are clearly wary of that bet given the diplomatic stalemate.
Watch for announcements from CENTCOM, the Iranian Foreign Ministry, or any unexpected diplomatic moves. These are the most likely catalysts for the next big price shifts in both markets.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
