UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed concern over foreign-backed proxy attacks in Britain. The “Starmer out by June 30, 2026” market is at 41% YES, up from 36% a week ago.
Market reaction
The 5-point jump over the past week on the June 30, 2026 market tracks growing concern about political fallout from the attacks and Starmer’s legislative response. The December 31, 2026 market sits at 66.5% YES, pricing in a higher probability of departure over the longer horizon.
Why it matters
The June 30 market has $7,603 in daily USDC volume, with $5,676 in order book depth needed to move the price 5 points. That’s moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike late at night, suggesting the market is reactive to news cycles.
Starmer’s comments come amid ongoing UK-Iran tensions and recent arson attacks on Jewish-linked sites in London. The prospect of new legislation complicates his political position further.
What to watch
At 41¢, a YES share pays $1 if Starmer is ousted by June 30, a 2.44x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe his position weakens significantly in the next 68 days. Watch for announcements on the proposed legislation and any developments in the counter-terrorism investigations, both of which could move this market.
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Starmer Out In 2025| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 41% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
