The UK Parliament voted not to pursue an inquiry into Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the Mandelson scandal. The market for Starmer leaving office by June 30 is at 38.5% YES, while the December 31 market sits at 66.5%.
The vote eased immediate pressure on Starmer. The June 30 market dipped slightly from 38% YES 24 hours ago. The December 31 market held steady. The 28-point spread between June and December suggests traders expect any serious threat to Starmer’s leadership to come later in the year, if at all.
Volume hit $71,348 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It takes $31,966 to move the December 31 price by 5 points. A 28-point spike at 12:29 PM points to some volatility, but the market’s overall stability after the vote suggests traders read it as shoring up Starmer’s position for now.
The vote against an inquiry removes the most immediate path to a no-confidence motion by Labour MPs. At 38.5¢, a YES share for June pays $1 if Starmer resigns or is removed by then, a 2.6x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to expect rapid developments within the Labour Party or a major scandal in the next two months.
Watch for Starmer’s handling of upcoming local elections in May. Significant losses could reignite leadership challenges and shift odds in both the June and December markets.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 66.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
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