UAE oil stocks in Fujairah have dropped 66% since the onset of the US-Iran war, hitting record lows at 6.982 million barrels. On Polymarket, WTI Crude Oil prices reaching $160 in April sits at 0% YES.
The WTI April market is priced at 0% YES, but traders are watching for a potential spike. The June market for Crude Oil hitting $90 is also drawing attention, though data is sparse. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already disrupted 20 million barrels per day of global oil exports, adding volatility to these contracts.
Trading volumes are low across both markets, with no trades in the last 24 hours. Any significant order could swing prices dramatically. The real dollars in play are minimal, meaning current prices may not reflect where sentiment would settle if larger players entered.
At 0% YES for WTI hitting $160 in April, the odds look stable, but that’s a function of low activity rather than conviction. A YES share at these prices would pay $1 if the situation escalates, so any news of further supply shocks could move the market fast.
Watch for announcements from OPEC+ leaders, particularly Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud or Alexander Novak. Satellite imagery or reports indicating shifts in supply chains around the Strait of Hormuz would also be worth tracking.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
