The UAE plans to join a U.S.-led coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. successfully conducted a rescue operation in Iran despite losing an aircraft. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
The focus is on military action rather than a ceasefire. The April 7 market remains at 1% with four days left. Odds for April 15 are 6%, a 2-point drop. The April 30 market fell from 24% to 17.5%.
The biggest change is between April 30 and May 31, with a 19-point increase, indicating traders expect possible developments. However, the May 31 market dropped from 46% to 36%. This trend shows doubt about a near-term ceasefire.
USDC traded in the last 24 hours was $430,773. The April 7 market’s shallow order book, needing $12,367 to move 5 points, shows vulnerability to large trades and low confidence in a quick resolution.
The UAE’s naval involvement and U.S. military actions point to escalation. With a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire at 1¢, the market offers a 100x payout if resolved, but odds are slim. Traders might find more opportunity in longer-dated markets with potential volatility.
Watch for the UN Security Council resolution vote on April 9 and any shifts in U.S. or Iranian military actions, which could affect market odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
