Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara could participate in demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz if Iran and the US reach a peace agreement. The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 15 is at 16% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market dropped 4 points over the past 24 hours to 16% YES. With 21 days until resolution, traders appear skeptical that a peace agreement and subsequent demining can happen fast enough.
Daily face value in this market is $215,992, with actual USDC traded at $36,459. It takes $4,658 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM, shortly after reports of Turkey’s diplomatic offer.
Turkey’s willingness to participate in demining could reduce regional tensions, but the underlying peace agreement is still speculative, and Turkey’s role in any coalition is undefined. At 16¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes by May 15, a 6.25x return. That payout requires rapid diplomatic progress on multiple fronts.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Minister on demining operations. Updates on the Iranian nuclear program or US-Iran peace talks could also move this contract.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
