Trump’s maximum pressure campaign hasn’t yielded concessions from Iran. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 now sit at 56.5% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Traders are losing confidence in a timely resolution. The May 31 sub-market dropped roughly 15.5 points in a day, with 37 days remaining on the contract. Daily volume is at $95,253 in USDC. It takes only about $8,975 to move the odds 5 points, meaning a single large order could still swing the market. The largest recorded move was a 5-point spike.
Why it matters
The persistent blockade and intensified US targeting of Iranian exports point to a protracted standoff rather than a quick diplomatic deal. At a YES price of 56¢, a successful resolution pays out 1.77x, a return that may not compensate for the risk unless concrete signs of negotiation progress appear.
What to watch
Official statements from Trump or the Pentagon, along with reports from Islamabad talks, could signal a shift in strategy. The next key date is April 30, when Trump’s response to Iranian demands on oil sanctions could change the trajectory of this standoff.
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