Trump’s latest speech hints at continued military escalation in Iran, reducing the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Traders reacted to Trump’s rhetoric of intensified strikes, causing a 2-point drop in the April 7 ceasefire market at 8:13 AM. The April 15 market also declined to 18% YES, while the April 30 ceasefire odds slightly increased to 38% YES, likely anticipating a potential catalyst in mid-April.
The trading landscape shows $205,330 in USDC volume for the April 7 market with $15,138 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating a thin market easily impacted by significant trades. The largest move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market, reflecting a more substantial shift in trader sentiment.
Trump’s speech suggests a bearish environment for a near-term ceasefire, reinforced by the lack of diplomatic progress and ongoing hostilities. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12.5x return. This wager requires betting against the current narrative of escalation.
Watch for potential shifts in rhetoric or diplomatic signals from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, as well as any unexpected conciliatory moves from either side in the coming days.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
