Trump’s angry response to Iran’s shootdown of a U.S. F-15 jet points to continued conflict. The market for military action against Iran ending by April 1, 2026, sits at 100% YES, though sentiment around broader Iran markets is shifting.
## Market reaction
The US military action against Iran market shows high certainty of ongoing operations, with all sub-markets at 100% YES. Expectations for a cessation by early April are near zero given entrenched positions and Trump’s recent outburst. The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is at 6% YES, a slight drop from prior levels. The market sees formal war declaration as unlikely even as tensions rise.
## Why it matters
Trump’s rhetoric suggests deeper entrenchment rather than any move toward resolution. The end of military operations against Iran by March 1st remains speculative with no concrete odds yet. A YES share at 6¢ for the December war declaration pays $1 if it resolves YES, but the market is pricing a low probability of that outcome.
## What to watch
Trump’s statements and any shifts in Pentagon strategy are the main catalysts. New military orders or public addresses could move these markets quickly. The next Pentagon briefing or congressional statement on Iran will likely set the direction.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
