President Trump is set to visit Beijing on May 14 amid the ongoing Iran war, and the market for Trump visiting China by May 31 is at 70.5% YES, down from 88% a week ago.
The confirmation of the May 14 date has injected some certainty, but odds still dropped sharply. The May 31 market jumped roughly 70 points from the nearly dead April 30 odds, which sat at 0.4%. The June 30 market is at 81% YES, with the gap between the two deadlines suggesting traders still see a real chance the trip slips past May.
Trading volume shows real commitment: $45,817 in actual USDC moved in the May 31 market. The largest recent move was a 3-point spike at 12:03 AM, likely a trader response to the May 14 confirmation. It takes $5,541 to move the price 5 points, giving this market more depth than typical geopolitical contracts.
The 17.5-point drop from last week’s 88% reflects the complication of scheduling a Beijing summit while running a war against Iran. Buying YES at 70¢ pays $1 if the visit occurs, a 1.42x return. The main risk for YES holders is an escalation in the Iran conflict or new diplomatic friction that forces a delay.
Watch for official confirmations from both Washington and Beijing. Statements from Xi Jinping or Chinese state media could move odds. Trump’s posts on Truth Social about the summit agenda or any last-minute changes are the other signal to track.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
