Trump retweeted a column suggesting he doesn’t need a deal with Iran. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market sits at 6% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The retweet sent a clear signal to traders that Trump isn’t prioritizing a peace deal. The April 30 market saw the sharpest drop, now at 6% YES. The May 31 market, trading at 29% YES, dropped from 44% over the last 24 hours. The June 30 market also fell, trading at 42% YES, down from 61% yesterday.
Why it matters
The term structure shows traders expect a potential catalyst between April 30 and May 31, with a 23-point jump in odds across those two deadlines. But current odds reflect skepticism about a deal being reached soon. The largest single price move was a 5-point drop in the May 31 market, suggesting traders reacted strongly to the retweet.
Actual USDC traded is $852,860 across all sub-markets, with the largest order book depth at $30,914 required to move prices 5 points in the April 30 market. The market is relatively thick but still responded sharply to Trump’s social media activity.
What to watch
For traders, this looks like a genuine shift rather than noise. The retweet implies Trump believes he has leverage without a deal, which could push odds lower unless there’s a diplomatic breakthrough. Buying YES at 6¢ offers a potential 16.67x return, but would require believing in a rapid change in Trump’s posture or a surprise diplomatic success.
Watch for formal statements from Trump or the White House that could contradict or reinforce this retweet, and any developments from the Islamabad talks involving Pakistani mediation.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
