President Trump has rejected sending envoys to Pakistan, suggesting that peace talks with Iran could occur over the phone. The probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 has dropped to 2% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The decision not to send envoys and the stalled negotiations in Islamabad have pushed expectations sharply lower across all timeframes. The April 30 market is nearly written off. The May 31 market dropped to 30.5% YES from 38% yesterday. The June 30 market is at 47.5% YES, down from 57% a day ago.
Why it matters
The April 30 market has $275,178 in actual USDC traded. It takes $27,666 to swing the market by five points, which means there’s real resistance to price moves in either direction. The largest single move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM, unlikely to hold without concrete diplomatic progress. Markets are priced for stasis, not resolution. A YES share for April 30 at 2¢ offers a 50x return, but that requires a deal materializing within days.
What to watch
Any statement from Trump’s administration or Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi could move these markets fast. Without new diplomatic signals, prices will likely stay flat across all three contract timeframes.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
