Trump has directed the US Navy to destroy boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of the US Navy escorting a commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30 have risen to 7% YES, up from 6% 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The move was swift but small. USDC trading volume sits at $1,581, against a face value of $25,826. Moving the odds by 5 percentage points would require $1,031, which points to a thin order book. The US Escorts Through Hormuz market shows the same modest uptick, with odds hovering at just 7% YES despite a direct military order from the president.
Why it matters
The increase reflects the possibility that US military action could escalate into a formal escort operation. But the drop from 22% a week ago to the current level suggests traders see the mine-destruction order as distinct from an escort mission. No formal escort operations have been announced or confirmed.
A YES share priced at 7¢ pays $1 on resolution, a 14.3x return. That payout reflects how unlikely traders consider a confirmed escort operation before April 30.
What to watch
The triggers that would move this market are specific: a Pentagon announcement of escort operations, a CENTCOM press release confirming escort duties, or Trump explicitly ordering escorts rather than mine-clearing operations. The distinction between destroying mine-laying boats and escorting commercial vessels is what’s keeping this market at single digits.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |