Trump plans a national security meeting today to review reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by April sit at 3.6% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
The market for Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April has dropped sharply over the past week. A single 8-point spike yesterday to 24% quickly reversed. Current odds sit at 3.6%, with $1,944 in actual USDC trading daily and just $119 needed to swing the odds by 5 points.
The odds for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 are even lower at 0.6% YES, down from 2% yesterday. The combined face value trade is $138,365, but only $2,451 of actual USDC is moving, with $972 required to shift the odds 5 points.
Today’s meeting could produce a signal on de-escalation. If Trump shows openness to Iranian proposals, these markets would reprice fast. Buying YES at 4¢ pays $1 on resolution, a 25x return. That bet requires confidence in a diplomatic pivot within days.
Watch for official statements after the meeting. If Trump acknowledges Iranian demands or announces new talks, both markets could move sharply. If the meeting produces nothing, expect odds to keep falling.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
