President Trump posted about mines in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting clearing operations remain difficult. The odds for the U.S. blockade being lifted by May 31 sit at 72% YES, down from 82% yesterday.
The 10-point drop to 72% shows traders pricing in the complexity of mine-clearing operations and Iran’s potential response. The market still leans toward resolution, but confidence eroded fast. Meanwhile, the likelihood of U.S. Navy escorts through the Strait by April 30 holds at 6% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down from 22% a week ago. That collapse from 22% to 6% in a week shows traders have largely written off immediate military escort operations.
Daily USDC volume in the blockade market is $27,582, with $8,549 needed to move the price 5 points, a moderately thick order book. The largest price move in the past 24 hours was a 3-point drop. The escort market is much thinner at $1,581 daily volume, meaning a single large order could swing the odds significantly.
Trump’s post raises the stakes but doesn’t change the underlying situation. The Pentagon estimates a six-month timeline for mine clearance, and the market reflects that skepticism about a quick resolution. At 28¢, a YES share on the blockade being lifted pays $1 if successful, a 3.57x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe in a diplomatic breakthrough or accelerated mine clearing.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon signaling a shift in operational strategy. Trump’s next post or an announcement of progress in nuclear talks could move these markets sharply.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
