Trump pulled the plug on US-Iran peace talks, and the April 30 permanent peace deal market dropped to 3.8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The collapse hit related markets across the board. The May 31 market fell to 31.5% YES from 38% a day ago, while the June 30 market dropped to 45.5% YES. The April 30 contract took the worst hit, now trading at 3.8% YES as short-term peace expectations nearly vanished. The term structure shows a 28-point gap from April to May, which tells you how little traders believe in any near-term breakthrough.
Combined daily volume across these markets is $854,588 in USDC. The April 30 contract’s largest recent move was a 6-point spike, and it takes $27,667 to shift the odds by 5 points. That’s decent thickness, but still vulnerable to large single orders.
Trump’s decision looks like hardline posturing rather than a real shift in strategy, and it exposes how fragile the negotiation process was. For traders, this is straightforwardly bearish. A YES share at 4¢ pays $1 if a deal lands by April 30, a 25x return. But at current odds, that’s a lottery ticket, not a trade.
Watch Trump’s social media and CENTCOM operational updates. Any sign of resumed talks or new diplomatic contacts could move these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 31.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 45.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
