President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, and the odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April are now at 70.5% YES, up from 44% just 24 hours ago.
## Market reaction
The ceasefire extension reduced immediate geopolitical tension, triggering a risk-on move across crypto markets. The Bitcoin $80,000 market jumped sharply, with the largest move being a 5-point spike at 8:48 AM. The odds for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 in April sit at 0.1% YES. That gap tells you traders see $80,000 as reachable within the remaining days of April but treat $150,000 as a non-event.
## Why it matters
Trading volume tells the story: $105,235 in USDC traded on the $80,000 target, compared to $328 for the $150,000 market. It takes roughly $25K to move the $80,000 market by 5 percentage points, which points to a thick order book and institutional-level participation. The $150,000 market is thin and can be pushed around by small trades.
The ceasefire matters for Bitcoin pricing because reduced geopolitical risk supports bullish sentiment on top of existing momentum from recent institutional buying and regulatory developments. At 70.5¢, buying YES for Bitcoin to hit $80,000 offers a 1.42x return. That bet requires continued positive sentiment and no sudden geopolitical or regulatory shocks before month-end.
## What to watch
Further developments in US-Iran talks or any sudden geopolitical reversals. Announcements from major institutions like BlackRock or Coinbase could push Bitcoin higher or trigger a pullback.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
