Trump said he is eager to visit China and noted oil prices are lower than expected. The May 31 China visit market now sits at 85.5% YES, up from 82% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The May 31 market jumped 4% in a single day. The June 30 market also moved up to 90.5% YES. The April 30 market remains at just 1% YES, which means traders see essentially no chance the visit happens this month.
Why it matters
Trump’s comment that oil prices are “about half of what was expected” hasn’t moved oil-related markets much. The chance of WTI Crude hitting $160 in April remains low. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to put pressure on oil prices regardless of Trump’s tone.
The U.S.-China trade détente is fragile. A shift in political dynamics or new conflicts could easily derail travel plans. But with odds now heavily favoring a visit by June 30, traders are treating Trump’s statements as likely to translate into action.
What to watch
Official announcements from the White House or Chinese Foreign Ministry would be the clearest catalyst. Any confirmation of travel dates could push these odds higher. On the oil side, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and shifts in OPEC+ production policies are the main variables.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 85.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
