President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13% YES, down from 22% yesterday.
The Situation Room meeting implies a shift toward military strategy rather than diplomacy, and the diplomatic engagement odds dropped accordingly. The market resolves in 12 days. It saw a 6-point spike earlier that didn’t hold as traders reassessed the likelihood of talks. The order book depth requires just $283 to move the price 5 points, making it susceptible to small trades.
The US-Iran ceasefire end market now sits at 20% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The Situation Room meeting signals potential escalation, and traders have raised their expectations of a ceasefire end announcement accordingly. This market resolves in three days, so traders are betting on imminent developments. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Trump lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 fell from 90% to 80.5% YES in the corresponding market, as traders price in extended tensions following the meeting.
The Situation Room meeting is not a routine briefing; it’s a potential prelude to action. Markets have recalibrated expectations across diplomacy and escalation contracts simultaneously. At 13¢, a YES share in the diplomatic meetings market pays $1 if resolved, a 7.7x return. That bet requires believing in a sudden diplomatic breakthrough within 12 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or White House announcements, particularly any Trump tweets. These could confirm escalation or signal diplomatic openings, and would move prices quickly given the thin order books.
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Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 12.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 20% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 80.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
