President Donald Trump announced that the Iran deal will be signed “today” in Pakistan, pushing the “US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?” market to 20% YES, up from 19.5% earlier.
Market reaction
Traders responded quickly to Trump’s statement. The sub-market for April 30 sits at 44% YES, while the May 31 market is at 64.5% YES, suggesting traders expect any deal to take longer than Trump’s timeline implies.
Volume on the permanent peace deal market is at $1.64M in USDC, with $9,366 in depth needed to move odds by 5 percentage points. The largest recent movement was a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM yesterday, which shows the market is thin enough that single large trades can shift prices meaningfully.
Why it matters
Trump’s claim, if real, would end a period of direct US-Iran tension. But Iran has rejected previous US terms, and the announcement may be posturing rather than a genuine breakthrough. At 20¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is confirmed by April 22, a 5x return. The question is whether Pakistan’s mediation role can close the gaps between the two sides.
What to watch
Statements from Iranian officials are the key signal. Abbas Araghchi or Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly accepting US terms would be the clearest confirmation. Also watch for Pakistani or Egyptian diplomatic moves that would back up Trump’s claim.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 44% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | — | — | Trade → |
