President Trump has canceled a planned trip by U.S. envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran. The April 30 permanent peace deal market sits at 2% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The April 30 market has collapsed from 61% a week ago. With six days left, traders see almost no chance of a deal before the deadline. The May 31 market trades at 30% YES, pushing expected resolution timelines further out. The June 30 contract is at 48% YES, where traders price in roughly coin-flip odds of some progress by midsummer.
USDC volume was $854,504 over the past 24 hours, with face value of $5.3M. It takes $27,666 to move the April 30 price by 5 points, meaning the book has real depth against sharp manipulation. The largest move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM, likely the initial reaction to the cancellation news.
Without U.S. envoy participation, a deal before April 30 is hard to imagine. Pakistan-hosted talks continue, but the absence of American negotiators removes the other party from the table. Buying YES at 2¢ offers a 49x return, but the deadline is six days away and no talks are scheduled.
Watch for statements from Pakistani mediators or Trump himself, since any move toward resumed dialogue could shift these odds. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s public activity could also signal whether talks are dead or just paused.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
