Trump called off talks with Iran in Pakistan, citing regime “infighting and confusion.” The market for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sits at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ago.
After Trump scrapped the Islamabad talks, the Iranian regime fall market moved higher as traders priced in greater skepticism about Iran’s internal stability. The jump from 6% to 8.5% in a week suggests the market reads a fractured leadership unable to negotiate as a meaningful signal. Over 67 days remain until the market resolves.
The Reza Pahlavi entry market has barely moved, with the June 30 contract at 6.5% YES. The December 31 contract is at 15.5% YES, which means traders see roughly twice the probability of his return if given six more months.
The Iranian regime fall market trades $35,587 in USDC daily, with order book depth of $16,830 to move the price 5 percentage points. That depth means a single credible report of internal conflict could move the odds fast. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike, so traders are positioned but waiting for new information before committing further.
With no visible path to resumed negotiations after Trump’s cancellation, traders are increasingly pricing in regime change risk. At 8.5%, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a potential 11.8x return. The bet depends on whether continued internal discord escalates to collapse within 67 days.
Watch for statements from the Assembly of Experts or signs of military unrest, particularly IRGC defections or large-scale protests. These would directly affect odds on both regime collapse and Reza Pahlavi’s potential return.
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Will Reza Pahlavi Enter Iran June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
