President Trump has mediated a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 17, 2026. The market on Israel’s suspension of its Lebanon offensive by April 30 is at 96% YES, up from 87% yesterday.
The ceasefire, part of the broader 2026 Lebanon war, has sharply moved several related markets. Israel’s suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 shows the most movement, with a 7-point increase over 13 days. Traders are betting on de-escalation following Trump’s direct talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. The May 31 and June 30 markets also rose, now at 98% and 98.4% YES, respectively.
The Israel suspension market has volume at $339,785 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The largest price move was a 28-point spike at 1:15 PM, likely triggered by a wave of buying after Trump’s announcement. The market is relatively thick, with $29,808 in USDC needed to move the price 5 points, which suggests institutional participation.
The ceasefire could signal real de-escalation, but the Trump-brokered deal doesn’t address Iran, whose Strait of Hormuz blockade is still active. A YES share on Israel’s suspension by April 30 is priced at 96¢, offering minimal return. For contrarian bettors, any breakdown in negotiations or renewed Hezbollah activity could push odds back down.
Watch for statements from the IDF or Hezbollah leadership, as well as US diplomatic moves. Signals to track include Netanyahu or Trump confirming further diplomatic progress or setbacks.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
