## Market Snapshot
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026, is priced at 2.1% YES, showing a decrease from 6% a day earlier. Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, is priced at 92.3% YES, up from 88% in the past 24 hours.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s critique of Powell and support for Warsh suggests increased likelihood of Warsh’s confirmation. – The Senate Banking Committee advancing Warsh’s nomination aligns with increased market confidence in his confirmation. – Powell’s potential early departure appears consistent with market expectations following Trump’s comments.
## Article Body
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed his preference for Kevin Warsh over Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, following the Senate Banking Committee’s advancement of Warsh’s nomination. Trump criticized Powell, labeling him a “negative force,” and reiterated his support for Warsh, whom he nominated in March 2026 to succeed Powell. The Senate Banking Committee’s narrow 13-11 vote in favor of Warsh marks a significant step toward his potential confirmation, as Powell’s current term is set to end on May 15, 2026. Trump’s comments come amid ongoing tensions regarding the Fed’s independence, highlighted by Powell’s remarks on April 29, 2026.
## Market Interpretation
The market interpretation suggests a high-impact development for the likelihood of Warsh’s confirmation and Powell’s early departure. Trump’s support for Warsh, coupled with the Senate Banking Committee’s advancement, aligns with pricing supportive of a YES outcome for Warsh’s confirmation. The developments appear consistent with scenarios where Powell may step down early, reflected in the increased probabilities for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15.
## What to Watch
Key developments to monitor include scheduling of the full Senate vote on Warsh’s confirmation and any public statements from Powell regarding his term. Additionally, further comments from Trump or other influential senators may impact market expectations. Watch for any procedural delays in the Senate that could affect the timeline of Warsh’s confirmation or Powell’s potential early departure from the Fed Chair position.
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Jerome Powell Out As Fed Chair| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 2.1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 98% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.2% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 74.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 92.2% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 98.5% | — | — | View market → |
