The Trump administration has ended its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key obstacle for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 now sits at 82% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The odds spike follows the Department of Justice dropping its criminal investigation into Powell. The May 15 market saw the largest move, a 20-point jump, suggesting traders expect the Senate Banking Committee to move quickly now that the investigation is off the table. The May 1 market remains at 2.3% YES, showing traders doubt confirmation can happen that fast.
Why it matters
Powell’s term ends on May 15, and the market expects a decision within that window. The June 30 market is nearly a foregone conclusion at 97.2% YES. The real question is whether confirmation happens in May, where the timeline is tight and the odds are still moving.
Trading volume hit $17,756 in USDC over the past 24 hours for the May 15 market. The cost to move the market by five points is $1,590, indicating enough liquidity on both sides for sizable positions.
What to watch
At 82¢, a YES share pays $1 if Warsh is confirmed by May 15, a 1.22x return. For this bet to make sense, you’d need to believe the Senate Banking Committee will act quickly, potentially with Senator Thom Tillis’s vote. Watch for scheduled confirmation hearings or public statements from committee members, either of which could move these odds further.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 97% | — | — | Trade → |