President Trump’s administration accuses foreign entities, particularly China-based, of extracting American AI capabilities using jailbreaking techniques. The Polymarket contract on Anthropic reaching a $100B to $200B market cap by December 31, 2027, sits at 0.6% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Anthropic IPO market dropped to 0.6% on the $100B to $200B range. The decline is small in absolute terms but represents a 40% drop from the prior 1% level. The term structure shows no movement across other ranges, all pinned at 0.6% YES. With 252 days until resolution, the market trades roughly $1 in USDC per day, and it takes only $39 to move the price by 5 points.
Why it matters
The accusations could increase investor concern about the security of U.S. AI firms’ intellectual property against industrial espionage. At sub-1% YES, the market is pricing in very low probability that Anthropic hits its market cap target in this range. A YES share at 0.6¢ pays $1 if Anthropic lands in the $100B-$200B range, a payout of 166.67x. The thin liquidity means this contract is easy to move but hard to exit at size.
What to watch
Federal countermeasures against AI jailbreaking, new developments in U.S.-China technology policy, and any SEC regulatory actions that could affect Anthropic’s IPO timeline or valuation.
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