The single most predictive oil indicator on earth in 2026 is a 78-year-old man’s posting cadence on truth social
Signal82 min read·Just now--
Forget OPEC minutes. forget EIA inventory reports. forget tanker tracking satellites.
the single most predictive oil indicator on earth in 2026 is a 78-year-old man’s posting cadence on truth social
we made the chart. it’s worse than you think.
brent crude sat at $68 for months. flat. boring.
feb 28: “US military began major combat operations” — brent +10% overnight
mar 6: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” — $92.62
mar 9: “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY” — $115.89 intraday
10 days. $68 to $116.
every hawkish post = up.
then on the same day he posted “ONLY FOOLS,” he called CBS and said “the war is very complete, pretty much”
brent crashed 11% in a single session. $115 to $87.
the man who sent oil to $116 with his posts sent it back to $87 with one interview.
mar 19: seeks $200B pentagon funding. brent hits $119 — cycle peak
mar 20: “i don’t want a ceasefire” to reporters. then truth social an hour later: “considering winding down”
same day. opposite signals. the chart looks like a heart attack.
mar 23 was the big one
“VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” on truth social at 7:05 AM
then on CNBC: “otherwise we’re going to keep bombing our little hearts out”
brent crashes 14%. $17 intraday swing. $580M in shorts placed minutes before the post. FT confirmed.
every major hawkish post correlated with oil going up. every dovish signal correlated with a crash.
one truth social account moved the largest commodity market on earth more than OPEC, the EIA, and every oil analyst combined
