Iranian news agency Tasnim has warned about the vulnerability of undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for the United Kingdom sending warships through the Strait by April 30, 2026, is at 2% YES, down from 6% a day ago.
The warning adds tension to the region, but odds for the UK sending warships remain low. A YES share at 2¢ would pay $1 if the UK sends warships by the deadline. Volume is thin, with $286 in USDC traded daily. It takes just $343 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning a single large trade could sharply shift the odds.
The odds for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 sit at 59.5% YES, down from 77% a day ago. That drop suggests traders expect tensions to persist and see a near-term resolution as unlikely. The move was driven by $32,536 in daily USDC volume. This market is much thicker: it takes $7,404 to move the price 5 points, indicating strong conviction on both sides.
The Tasnim warning frames digital infrastructure as a pressure point, which could delay any blockade lifting if both sides harden their positions. Traders betting on a quick resolution should account for the thinness of the warship market and how easily a single large order can move the price.
Watch for announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or any naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz. A confirmed transit of UK warships would be a strong bullish signal for the warship market.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |