The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 21.5% YES, reflecting trader skepticism as the ceasefire expiration approaches next week with no long-term agreement in sight.
Market reaction
The Hormuz market has seen no activity in the last 24 hours. The Hormuz market is notably thin, making it susceptible to large swings if new information surfaces. Separately, diplomatic talks scheduled in Islamabad have not moved the April 30 diplomatic meeting market, which remains at 10% YES. The flat pricing suggests traders are unconvinced by current diplomatic efforts.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil trade, and the ongoing blockade has spiked crude prices. For the normalization bet to pay off at 21.5%, significant de-escalation would need to occur within the next 12 days. The ceasefire expires next week, and no framework for a longer-term agreement exists. Without concrete steps toward resolution, both markets are priced for continued disruption.
What to watch
Traders should monitor announcements from the IRGC, Maersk, and the US administration. Any easing of the blockade or resumption of tanker traffic could shift odds quickly. President Trump’s statements and developments from the Islamabad negotiations are the most likely catalysts in either direction.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Who Will Meet With Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 22, 2026 | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
