Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, with blockades from both Iran and the US showing no signs of easing. Odds for traffic returning to normal by May 15 have dropped to 14% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 sits at 54.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. With 37 days until resolution, the drop reflects entrenched positions on both sides. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, from 57% to 62%, likely driven by speculative trading rather than new developments.
Why it matters
For the traffic normalizing by May 15 market, daily volume is $36,459 in USDC, and only $4,658 is needed to move the price 5 points, meaning small trades can cause large swings. The ongoing blockade and absence of diplomatic progress indicate traders are betting heavily against a quick resolution.
What to watch
At 14¢, a YES share for traffic normalizing by May 15 pays $1 if resolved, a 7.14x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a drastic shift in negotiations within 21 days. Given the current diplomatic stalemate between the US and Iran, with no visible movement toward a ceasefire or agreement to lift the blockades, that shift looks unlikely. Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. A surprising diplomatic breakthrough could move these markets fast, but current positioning is heavily bearish.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
