The Strait of Hormuz closed again, throwing peace talks into uncertainty. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 1.4% YES, up from 1% yesterday.
Market reaction
WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 remains at 1.4% after a 25-point spike yesterday evening. The market has barely moved beyond that, and traders are skeptical prices will reach that level. The disruption has, however, pushed odds higher for Crude Oil hitting $90 by June with supply threats hanging over the next 73 days.
Why it matters
Combined face value across WTI markets is $360,822, but actual USDC traded is just $2,814. It takes $1,655 to move the price by 5 points, so the market is thin enough that a single large order could cause sharp swings. The 25-point spike already demonstrated that volatility can erupt on minimal volume.
What to watch
The closure itself matters less than what follows. At 1.4¢, a YES share pays out large if the market moves against current expectations, but that bet requires sustained closure or further military escalation. Statements from Iranian and US leaders, along with any OPEC+ response, are the most likely catalysts. A prolonged closure or signs of military action could shift odds fast.
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