SpaceX closed a $20 billion short-term bridge loan in March 2026, and the Polymarket contract on a SpaceX IPO by June 30 now trades at 74% YES, up from 71% yesterday.
The June 30 market is at 74% YES, a 3.5-point rise from a week ago. The September 30 market trades at 92% YES with little change, which suggests traders already priced in a high probability of an IPO by fall and see the real question as whether it happens before summer. The term structure shows the largest jump between April 30 and June 30, implying traders are concentrating their bets on that window for major IPO developments.
The market trades $5,140 in actual USDC daily, with $4,376 needed to move the June contract 5 points, a moderately thick order book. The largest single move was a 2-point spike at 3:27 PM, driven by the loan announcement.
The $20 billion loan signals SpaceX is preparing for what would likely be a record $1.75 trillion offering. At 26¢, NO shares on the June 30 market price in a 3.85x return if the IPO happens on schedule. For this to hold, SpaceX must avoid regulatory or operational setbacks that could push the timeline past June.
Watch for SEC filings confirming an S-1 prospectus or public comments from Elon Musk on IPO timing. Either could move the June contract sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
