SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Starlink revenue soared 842% to $4.42B in two years. The SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026, market sits at 0% YES, while the June 30 market prices at 72% YES.
The SpaceX IPO by June 30 market is at 72% YES, down from 76% yesterday but up from 44% a week ago. Traders are pricing in the IPO’s likelihood within the next 71 days. The September 30 market is at 92% YES. The April 30 market is at 0%, meaning traders see no chance of the IPO happening in the next 10 days.
Daily volume in the June 30 market is $5,559, with $1,571 needed to move it 5 points, which indicates moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop at 4:27 PM.
Starlink’s revenue growth and SpaceX’s cash reserves give traders reason to price the IPO as likely. The dual-class share structure that maintains Musk’s control may deter some investors. At 72¢, a YES share for a June 30 IPO pays $1 if correct, a 1.39x return. Traders betting on a summer IPO need to believe regulatory approvals and market conditions work out by then.
Watch for SEC filing status updates, Starship test flights, or Elon Musk confirming IPO specifics. Any of these could move odds sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
